Solid Impressions from Exports and Imports – UOB
Julia Goh, Senior Economist at UOB Group, and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest export / import data for Malaysia.
“Malaysia’s export and import values hit a record high again in April due to weak base effects last year and continued recovery in global demand. Exports grew the most since February 1998 by 63.0% year-on-year to an all-time high of MYR 105.6 billion in April (March: + 31.0% to MYR 104.9 billion), exceeding our estimate ( + 59.0%) and the Bloomberg consensus (+ 50.0%). Imports recorded the largest gains in nearly 4 years of 24.4% yoy to reach a new high of MYR 85.1 billion (March: + 19.2% to MYR 80.8 billion) . This reduced the trade surplus to MYR 20.5 billion (up from MYR 24.2 billion in March). “
“Since the start of the year, exports have grown by 27.8% in January-April 2021, exceeding our export growth forecast for the year 2021 by 15.0% (2020: -1.4%) . To reflect the stronger than expected export growth in March-April amid the manageable impact of the one-month National Movement Control Ordinance (MCO 3.0) from May 12 to June 7 on business activities, we let’s raise our export growth projection for the year 2021 to 22%. The continued global recovery, intensified trade diversion and diversification, and global technological upgrading are the main drivers of export performance. “